PJM380 Peer discussion responses 200 words each

**Please reply to both POST1: and POST2: in at least 200 words each. I have also included the professors comments and references for you. The professors comments do not need a reply.**

**Required**

- Chapter 14 in
*Project Management Toolbox* - Part 1, Chapter 11 in
*A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)**,*6th edition - Botezatu, M. A. (2016). Insight into project risk management.
*Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management*, 1-14. - Qi, A. (2015). Chinese traditional management philosophy and project risk management.
*Organization, Technology & Management in Construction, 7*(1).

**Recommended**

- Piney, C. (2012). Integrated project risk and issue

management. Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2012—EMEA,

Marsailles, France. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

Retrieved from https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/integrated-project-risk-issue-management-6303

**Professor comments:**

Colleagues,

Start

digging now … I am looking for your thoughts on this one. Note Task 1

is Start-to-Start with Task 2, and then Task 2 and Task 1 have a

precedence relationship with Task 3. What do you make of this?

Do you think this can impact the project end date?

Here is another clue, Colleagues.

Tasks

1, 7, and 8. Do you see the slack? What does that say to you? Tasks 2,

3, 4, 5, and 6 are our Critical Path. What does that suggest our Project

Timeline might be?

Something else to ponder.

The

original intent is the triangle issue where task 1 is a start-to-start

with task 2 — and it also is finish-to-start with Task 3 — while task 2

is a finish-to-start with task 3. Do you see any implications there for

the timeline of the project?

I

understand another question. So long as the PM manages the flow there

should be little issue. Task 2 is a start -to-start with task 1, so, are

we bound to start task 1 immediately (as depicted) or can we wait —

based on the slack we see?

**POST1:**

The linked bar chart shows the activities, their duration

in days, and the types of relationships. The duration of Task 1 is

currently two days however that may not be correct. The duration of

Task 1 follows a triangle distribution with parameters of 1, 2, and 8.

The project manager needs to calculate the triangle distribution to

figure out the actual duration for Task 1.

**Triangular Distribution**

According to Martinelli & Milosevich (2016), “three

values are used to describe a very simple and popular triangular

distribution” (p. 403). The values, minimum (L); most likely (M); and

maximum (H), represent the task duration in days. For Task 1, the

minimum (L) is 1; the most likely (M) is 2, and the maximum (H) is 8.

The values are used to calculate the mean using the following formula:

(L + M + H)/3 or (1 + 2 + 8)/3 = 3.67 days (Martinelli & Milosevich,

2016).

*Note.* Adapted from Project

management toolbox: Tools and techniques for the practicing project

manager (2nd ed.) by R.J. Martinelli & D.Z. Milosevich, 2016, John

Wiley and Sons, p. 404.

According to the triangular distribution, Task 1 will

most likely take 2 days. However, the task could take anywhere from 1

to 8 days. The mean for the task is 3.67 days. This means that the

distribution is asymmetrical as the most likely value does not equal the

mean (Iordanova, 2020).

**Project End Date**

The linked bar chart shows that Tasks 1 and 2 start on

the same date. However, Task 2 lasts approximately 5 days. Task 3

starts after Task 2 is complete. So, as long as Tasks 1 and 2 are

completed before Task 3 is scheduled to start, the project end date

should not be impacted.

References

Iordanova, T. (2020, January 19). Bet smarter with the Monte Carlo

simulation. Retrieved from

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/monte_car…

Martinelli, R. J., & Milosevich, D. Z. (2016). *Project management toolbox: Tools and **techniques for the practicing project manager *(2nd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons

**POST2:**

There

is risk everywhere when it comes to projects. There are risks that are

expected and are mitigated by any means, and then there is unexpected

risks that can cause harm to a project, but how much harm and where is

what risk management is used to find out. Martinelli & Milosevich

(2016) state that during a project, “a project manager will face a

situation where they have along list of risk events, and little clue of

the impact they may have on the project goals,” and that “a Monte Carlo

analysis can be performed to quantiﬁably evaluate the potential impact

of the critical risks.” One of the tools part of the Monte Carlo that is

used to find unexpected risks during a project and the duration that

they may last is the use of triangular distribution. The triangular

distribution “a common formula used when there is insufficient

historical data to estimate duration of an activity. It is based on

three points that consider estimation uncertainty and risk” (PMI, 2017).

Looking at the linked bar chart above, a project manager can make out

several points that can describe the process of the project. One of the

major points is that there is a connection between Task 1, and Task 2

and the possible risk on the schedule that these activities may have.

Using the uncertainty and risk tool of triangle distribution, the

project manager can take three points and create a risk assessment.

These three points are: Most Likely (M), Optimistic (O), and Pessimistic

(P). Once the PM has gathered the points, then it can be plugged into

either the formula of Triangular Distribution, which is (P+O+M)/3, or

use a similar formula of Bata Distribution (PERT) (which is used when an

ample amount of historical data is present (PMI,2017)), which is

(P+4ML+O)/6 (Martinelli & Milosevich, 2016, pg 404). Taking Task 1

and plugging it into either formulas using the parameters given, the

Project Manger would get:

**Triangular Distribution: **(8+1+2)/3 = 3.68 days

**Beta Distribution: **(8+4(2)+1)/6 = 2.84 days

Using the risk techniques of triangular and beta distribution,

project managers are able to see that Task 1 will take roughly 3 days to

complete. Knowing this information, and seeing that the beginning of

Task 3 is in relationship to the end of Task 2, and Task 2 has a length

of 5 days, Task 1 should not be a risk, or should be considered a low

level risk at most, and should have no effect on the project end date.

Martinelli, R. J., & Milosevich, D. Z. (2016). Project management

toolbox: Tools and techniques for the practicing project manager (2nd

ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons

Project Management Institute (PMI). (2017). A guide to the project

management body of knowledge (PMBOK® Guide): Agile practice guide (6th

ed.). Newton Square, PA: PMI Publications.